El Niño is here: how to prepare your herd for a hot, dry summer

The world's weather services agree that a very strong El Niño is building, and the South African Weather Service expects a hotter, drier summer over most of the country. That is a warning, not a verdict. Dams are fuller and the veld is in better shape than before the last big drought, so planning now gives you the most choices. Here is what El Niño is, what it did to herds before, and what you can do this month.

What El Niño is, and why it matters here

El Niño is a natural weather pattern that starts far away, in the Pacific Ocean. Every few years the sea along the equator there becomes warmer than usual. The winds over it weaken, and the big tropical rain clouds move east. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explained in September 2026 that El Niño comes back every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to twelve months. It is at its strongest between November and February, the heart of our summer rains.

Professor Mathieu Rouault of the University of Cape Town explained in 2015 that El Niño cuts the moist air that reaches us from the Indian Ocean. Eight of the ten strongest droughts in southern Africa since 1900 came during an El Niño, he said, but El Niño brought severe drought about half the time, not every time. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) noted in September 2026 that 1982/83 and 2015/16 brought widespread drought. But the very strong El Niño of 1997/98 brought slightly above-normal rain to parts of the summer rainfall region.

What the forecasters say for this summer

In September 2026 the American weather agency NOAA gave a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño over our spring and summer. It gave a 75% chance that October to December 2026 brings the strongest El Niño measured since 1950.

SAWS said on 1 September 2026 that this El Niño "could become the strongest event in living memory". For October to December 2026, below-normal rain is "the most likely outcome over most of South Africa", with above-normal temperatures. November to January looks very similar. If the rain stays low, SAWS warns, heatwaves are likely to come more often, and they could be severe.

Strong does not have to mean disaster. The WMO said in September 2026 that the strength of an El Niño does not directly decide how bad its effects will be in any region. Follow the SAWS monthly forecasts, not just the headlines.

Reasons for hope

South Africa goes into this summer much stronger than it went into 2015/16. Absa reported that the country's dams were 95.5% full in August 2026, against 55% in August 2016. Wandile Sihlobo of Agbiz wrote in July 2026 that soil moisture is better than normal and that "the grazing veld across the country is in a fair condition". The Agricultural Research Council said in September 2026 that conditions are more favourable than before the 2015/16 summer, though this could change. One warning: the Department of Agriculture said that month that the winter rainfall areas had too little rain this winter.

Dr Christiaan Mostert of the University of Pretoria warned in July 2026 that 2027/28 could be harder if this season uses up today's reserves of water, grazing and grain. So plan for two seasons, not one.

What 2015/16 taught us

SAWS figures reported in January 2016 made 2015 the driest year in records going back to 1904: 403 mm of rain against an average of 608 mm. By June 2016 eight of the nine provinces had been declared disaster areas, the Minister of Cooperative Governance said. In September 2016 government said the drought had cut the national herd by 15%.

On communal land it was far worse. A 2020 study of the livestock of about 3 000 households in Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal, found that farmers there lost 43% of their cattle and 29% of their goats in 2015/16. Almost one household in ten lost all its cattle, African Farming's 2025 summary reported.

The market had its own lesson. When many farmers had to sell at once there was a glut, and Wandile Sihlobo said in September 2016 that it kept beef prices "at pretty much soft levels". Later, as farmers rebuilt their herds and fewer animals went to slaughter, beef prices rose by about 30%, Pieter Prinsloo of the Red Meat Producers' Organisation said in March 2017.

Make your plan now, with dates

The Department of Agriculture advised in September 2026: keep animal numbers in balance with your grazing, and do not overstock. Dr Ikalafeng Kgakatsi of the Department said on 702 radio that month: "You must also start by now reducing your livestock to make sure that you have a smaller number that we can feed." Write a one-page drought plan this month.

1. Count what you have. Mark the animals that would go: old animals, females that are not producing, and animals that keep falling behind.
2. Count your grazing honestly. A 2025 study found that on drought-hit Nama-Karoo farms, the veld could carry about a quarter of the animals that the national grazing norm allows. Plan on the grass you can see.
3. Set trigger dates. If good rain has not come by a date you choose, sell a set number of animals. If it still has not come a month later, sell more. Decide now, while your head is calm.
4. Protect the core. Keep your young breeding females and your best mothers. Professor HO de Waal advised in 2016 that you guard your core breeding herd, because those animals will earn for you after the drought.

Selling some animals early is not giving up. It protects the rest. Thys Delport, who chaired the National Wool Growers' Association in the Western Cape, advised in 2015 selling unproductive animals while they are in good condition, before the market is flooded.

Feed and water

• Water before feed. Check boreholes, pumps, pipes and troughs now, and add watering points, as the Department advises. Every 2 km an animal walks adds 5 to 10% to its energy needs, Johan Mouton of RCL Foods told Farmer's Weekly in 2019.
• Build a fodder bank. Store hay, maize stalks and silage. Grain is plentiful after the record summer crop that the Crop Estimates Committee forecast in August 2026, but it is not cheap. Grain SA's report of 7 October 2026 put yellow maize at R3 976 a tonne, 14% more than a year before. Buy or book what you need early.
• Feed carefully. A cow that is not in milk needs about 8 kg of dry feed a day to survive, Mouton said in 2019. Professor de Waal advised in 2016 that you ration feed, and keep the weak apart from the strong at the trough. For sheep, Delport gave pregnant ewes high-energy feed in 2015, because a lamb gains almost 80% of its weight in the last six weeks before birth.
• Change feed slowly. Let animals get used to a new feed before they get full access, Erastus Ngaruka wrote in Namibia's New Era in 2019. Too much grain at once, or rainwater standing in a urea lick trough, can poison animals. Ask your vet or feed adviser before you start.
• Wean early when feed is truly short. In a severe drought, Farmer's Weekly advised in 2023, wean calves at about six months, because calves weaned younger than about five months suffer a severe setback in growth.

Heat, fire and health

• Heat. The Western Cape Department of Agriculture advised in 2024: give water and shade, feed in the late afternoon or evening, control flies, and do not work cattle in extreme heat.
• Fire. The national Department told farmers in 2025 to make and keep up firebreaks, which it calls fire belts, and to obey veld fire warnings. If fire comes, move animals onto ploughed land, the Western Cape Department adds.
• Vaccinations. Hot weather brings pests and disease, so the Department advises "regular vet visitations including vaccinations". Plan yours with your vet or your state animal health technician.
• Botulism. When the veld is dry, cattle short of phosphorus chew bones, which can carry botulism. Farmer's Weekly advised in 2016 a supplement with phosphate and calcium in dry months, and burning or burying all carcasses and bones. Ask your vet about the right lick and the vaccine.

Stronger together

A 2025 study of 123 commercial livestock farmers found that social networks and access to markets shape how farmers cope with drought. Communal farmers already share grazing, so share the plan too. Agree with your traditional authority and neighbours which areas rest, and when. Share news of rain and sick animals in your association or WhatsApp group. Store crop residues, vaccinate and sell together.

It works. In 2021 the Mail & Guardian reported on a programme with traditional leaders in 55 villages of the upper uMzimvubu catchment, Eastern Cape, that brought back rotational grazing and rest. Farmers who took part paid an auction commission of 3% instead of 6%, and paid less for vaccines.

Relief and insurance: helpful, but do not wait

Government drought relief comes after a disaster is declared, and it takes time. Drought was declared a national disaster in February 2020, but the relief money for seven provinces was transferred in July 2020, according to a written reply to Parliament that December. Plan as if relief will come late.

• Register and keep records. Make sure your extension officer knows your animals. Write down counts, births, deaths, sales, feed and rain, and report losses as they happen.
• Follow the advisories. The Department said in September 2026 that it will keep issuing monthly advisories and daily extreme weather warnings. Call 012 319 6000 or email queries@nda.gov.za.
• Ask about insurance. The Land Bank Insurance Company launched Pasture Drought Index Insurance for livestock farmers in 2024, Engineering News reported in 2025. In October 2024 it announced a two-year pilot for smallholders in five provinces. It pays when an agreed measure, such as rainfall, crosses a set level. We could not confirm who can join in 2026, or the price, so ask the Land Bank, your broker or your co-op.

How Live Stock can help

We cannot make it rain. We can make your plan easier to carry out, with buyers anywhere in South Africa.

• Sell a few at a time. While the market is new, a single deal is up to 3 animals or R40 000 all in. That suits selling small batches early, not a whole herd at once. Listing is free. Farmers keep 97%. The buyer pays a 7% service fee.
• Answer real requests. On the demand board, buyers post what they want, and every verified seller in that province is told.
• Know the going rate. The price guide shows a price band per head, built from published market averages. It is a guide, never a valuation, but it helps you judge an offer.
• Know who you deal with, and when you are paid. Every buyer is identity-checked before any meeting. The buyer pays into escrow with a licensed escrow provider, and Live Stock never holds the money. The buyer inspects the animals and accepts or rejects them. You are paid after acceptance and a 24-hour hold.
• Keep your records. Every sale issues your health declaration, a transport authorisation, a movement record and a proof of sale. They are Live Stock's records, not state permits.

Before you meet a buyer, you attach a vet certificate dated within the last 12 months. The foot-and-mouth movement rules still apply, so ask your state vet what your area needs before animals move. Make your plan this month, keep your best animals strong, and be ready for the rain when it returns.